England v South Africa, One day Series

Wed 20/08/08 16:30 Twenty20 International - England v South Africa, Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street

Fri 22/08/08 14: 45 1st ODI - England v South Africa, Headingley, Leeds

Tue 26/08/08 14: 45 2nd ODI - England v South Africa, Trent Bridge, Nottingham

Fri 29/08/08 10: 45 3rd ODI - England v South Africa, Kennington Oval, London

Sun 31/08/08 10: 45 4th ODI - England v South Africa, Lord's, London

Wed 3/09/08 14: 45 5th ODI - England v South Africa, Sophia Gardens, Cardiff

There are some facts we must recognise before this series starts, and in doing so we have to ignore the recent victory by the Lions over South Africa.

The first is South Africa are one of the two best one day sides in the world. I actually think the rankings system currently has them as first but that is too often skewed. However, they are defintiely ranked a damned sight higher than England who muster in ahead of those giants of the modern game, Bangladesh, Zimbabwe and West Indies. So on paper, and by record, England should suffer in this series.

But will they?

The problem I have is England can and do win games. The problem is when they do, it is based on the efforts of the top individuals - Andrew Flintoff with the ball or Kevin Pietersen with the bat. Other teams win more often because they have plenty of matchwinners and closers of games - the likes of Yuvraj Singh for India for example. Who is England's Singh? Owais Shah perhaps?

No, if England win games it is KP or Freddie - not the bit part men - and England currently have too many of them. Bell, Cook, Bopara, Shah, Wright, Prior etc.

The batting is absolutely vital and it looks like Bell and Prior opening. They need to set foundations with good strokeplay in the first 15 overs and yet they cannot let us become 30-2. A tough ask but one that all successful countries have answers for.

Normally on these matches I enjoy the runs markets and do the stats but there has been so much bad weather around that the stats for a match in 10 days time is irrelevant and even worse, could taint our thinking which may be costly. Rain generally helps the bowlers as the Lord's pitch for Saturday's terrible Friends Provident Final showed, so play each match on those markets as it happens and not before.

Men to watch:

England: they need runs and that means KP. As for the bowling we need to take wickets which means Sidebottom, Anderson and Flintoff.

South Africa: batting is Smith, Gibbs, de Villiers, Kallis and so on. The all rounders and lower hitting is the Morkels, Albie and Morne and with Steyn, Nel etc they have weapons with the ball.

Last 12 months results:

England: played 22, won 9

South Africa: played 19, won 16

Oh dear, that is not encouraging although Freddie was absent.

Markets:
To win SA are 1/2
Their price for the first match is 4/6

I will have a small bet on SA outright but will be pursuing the bigger price match markets for better value but the stats demand we follow SA.

Twenty20

We have a policy of ignoring or trading the short price during the first innings in these matches. Stick to that.