Guinness Premiership

Gloucester v Bath, Saturday 2.30am

The classic west country derby between two form sides with plenty of history. There are legions of young backs on display for the purist to salivate over and some meatheads up front top ensure this is a rough and tumble spectacle as well.

Home advantage is crucial here but this could be close. Gloucester are 8/15 with Bath 13/8.

I will lay the side scoring first and hope for a ding-dong match. The sides are well matched so if they both play we could really enjoy 80 minutes of thunder and price swings.

Super 14

As the season has continued in Super 14 the games have become harder to call. Last week was no exception. It would have been fine if the Chiefs had not blown about four golden try opportunities and then allowed the Force to steal victory with the final kick.

As for the others - two traded handsomely and two were poor leaving me with no profit, indeed a loss and a lot of irritation. This season was superb for about 9 weeks and since then we have trod water or slipped back a little. Very annoying!

So this weekend what can we expect? The Stormers are at home again and look impressive but the Waratahs should offer something against them as the Brumbies eventually did after a bad 20 minutes and that prima donna ref Steve Walsh.

But I start with Friday night's game.

Bulls v Brumbies, Friday 6pm

The Brumbies were reffed out of it last week by Walsh and the Bulls mustered enough to get us over the line. However, I do not see this being a blasting tonight and reckon there could be plenty of price moves of about .2 throughout even when there is no scoring as possession goes back and forth.

At 4/9 the Bulls are easy favourites but i am looking to oppose small once the match has started. If they start well then I shall be laying them if they score first and their price collapses to 1.2ish. However, this is a TRADING match and should be watched continously for momentum.

Reds v Crusaders, Saturday 10.30am

This is a straight up bet for the favourites against the Reds who are in disarray at the moment. At 3/13 the Kiwi side are short so I will back them with a handicap of 12 points at 10/11 but only if they do not rest many players.

The Reds have struggled all season and now have players deserting them to Europe or retirement which must make it an awkward dressing room.

Stormers v Waratahs, Saturday 6pm

The tie of the round. The Stormers at home are excellent but the Tahs have men like Phil Waugh who can snaffle ball and make sure it is not one-sided. Really the home team should win but that does not mean there will not be trading opportunities for us.

At 8/13, if you cannot watch you should get a decent run for your money on the Stormers. I am going to watch the start and see if the Tahs forwards have parity and then look to trade this match. If I had to have a starting point though I reckon the Stormers will be hugely disappointed if they lose with their current good form and so much (semi-finals) at stake.