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Poker Tips: Skills & Strategy

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The daily grind
Badbeats and angry donkeys

Variance can make you feel like someone's got it in for you but tilting off money is not going to help

This month has been an utter disaster. There, I’ve said it. At the back end of last month I was praying to the poker gods for my hands to hold up, but they decided to continue punishing me, probably for my atheist beliefs. Feeling a little sick after a bout of outdraws I was hoping that they would be curtailed by this new column, like the beginning of a new school term perhaps – you know, that bit where the teacher says the slate has been wiped clean and previous indiscretions forgotten. No such luck. I lose four straight coin-flips in a row, and then get it all-in with Kings against Eights pre-flop and Jacks against K-9 on the turn of a Nine-high board. I lose both of those as well.

What are the chances of losing those six hands in a row? Well, let’s see. The chance of losing four coin-flips (about 50% each), an overpair to underpair pre-flop (20% each) and five outs with just the river to come (12%). I’ll spare you the brain-numbing maths, but the chance is just 0.15625%, which, according to a poll I saw online, is the same likelihood of an American scientist believing in creationism over evolution. It might be the poker gods’ way of telling me I should alter my belief systems...

Tilted

I decide to ignore their warnings to change course – I was getting my money in good after all – but it did highlight one major problem: money coming in. Since giving up the day job, my cashflow is a bit irregular. Thankfully, I’ve got other revenue streams available, so I hunker down to a bit of freelance writing in order to pay the bills. This turns out to be a wise decision, as being on the wrong side of Madame Fortune at the moment sends my bankroll spinning down further, and isn’t helped by some rage-induced tilt. Weak calls and passive plays edge into my sessions.

I also lose a three-and-a-half buy-in pot to a player who shoves on the turn – with very little fold equity – holding nothing but a gutshot draw (and of course hits it). Unfortunately, it’s the catalyst for one terrible session where I make lots of bad calls (and kind of know I’m behind), and toss hands away when I probably should call.

If I’ve learnt one thing, it’s that there are a lot of terrible players out there; in future if they suck out on me, I’ve got to avoid lowering myself to their level. It’s time to focus and think about the long-term picture. Right then – new month, clean slate...

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DACEY: donkey or shark?

BY JOHN TABATABAI
DACEY: K-Q
VILLAIN: J-J
BLINDS: .50/
BOARD: K-Q-6-J-3


You’re dealt K-Q in the big blind and decide to call the under the gun raiser’s bet of . That’s okay; it’s good to mix your play up, or you’ll become predictable and too easy to trap if you mindlessly three-bet all the time, especially out of position. The flat-call is fine.

You flop top two-pair and decided to check, presumably with the intention of check-raising, which is fine. But your opponent checks behind. That can mean a variety of things; he might want to keep the pot small with a hand that has some showdown value, such as mid pocket pairs, he could have A-J or A-10 for the draw, or he might have a set.

The turn is a Jack and you bet , which is fine, but then he minimum re-raises you to . So he’s checked the flop in position and now he min-raises you – this is rarely ever a bluff, even at the higher limits. Inexperienced players do this as a semi-bluff with flush draws and bet any river, whether they hit or miss. Here it looks like he has A-10 to me, but I don’t know the opponent. Flat-calling is fine, re-raising or going all-in would be horrific.

The river is a blank, and you bet . I’m not sure if you meant to do this as an accidental value bet or as a blocker. If stacks were deeper I would recommend this play, but you should make it a slightly bigger bet, as your looks so pathetic that you’ll get value-raised and bluff-raised a lot, and then you’ll have no idea where you are. Betting a third of the pot on the river is usually a good guideline for a big hand, where you’re not 100 percent sure you’re ahead.

By the time he re-raises to , you have to be pretty much certain he has you beat to fold. You have top two-pair, and have to call to win . Because of the pot odds you’re getting (4/1) it’s a very, very tough spot to fold. You should make the call, but you shouldn’t have put yourself in that kind of position in the first place.

JOHN’S VERDICT: DONKEY

BADBEAT DETAILS: JULY 21: +,492 / AUGUST 18: +4

HANDS PLAYED: 24,011 TOTAL (THIS MONTH AROUND 10,000)
BIGGEST POT WON: 9 (Q-Q VS J;-Q)
BIGGEST POT LOST: 4 (K-K VS A-A)

 
 

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Ben Milkybarkid Grundy

Ben 'Milkybarkid' Grundy

Omaha expert Ben Grundy tells how he made the jump from computer consultant to high stakes online poker pro

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