One of the things that separates poker from other games of chance is our ability to select the odds under which we are willing to wager money. One can encourage action by providing the appropriate odds for a call, as one can also discourage action by ‘pricing someone out’ of a pot. However, there seems to be a great misconception as to what true odds are and how they are calculated.

Let’s look at one hand, for example, and see if we agree on how many outs a particular player has. The player is holding K♥-Q♥ on a flop of J♥-10♥-3♦. If you ask three different players this question, you will most likely get three different answers:

1

17: Eight outs for the open-ended straight draw, plus nine outs for the flush draw

2

23: As well as the 17 for the straight and flush draws, you could also include the three Kings and three Queens as possible outs

3

15: The more skilled players would disregard the over- cards and deduct the cards suited in hearts from the outs available for the straight draw

My answer is a little different. Let’s assume this is a full table and 20 cards are dealt out. We also have a burn card and three cards that appear on the board, so, 24 of the 52 cards in the deck have already been utilised, meaning that 46% of the cards in the deck are out; it is also logical to assume that 46% of your possible outs are also out.

As such, you probably have eight ‘realistic’ outs remaining to improve your hand. In other words, you have about a 28% chance of catching one of your outs in the remaining 28 cards. Thus, proper pot odds to make the call and continue on to the turn would be something in the region of 3.5/1. Nevertheless, 4/1 is really what you want in order to make this a profitable venture. If you continuously call in this scenario with pot odds of 4/1 or greater, you’ll do well in the long run.

Pot odds calculations for a cash game specialist are extremely important, as the odds will always catch up with you over time. Getting the right price when continuing in a hand is critical to one’s long-term survival in the game. With that said, there are some simple ways to calculate odds without requiring an Oxbridge degree.

Where's the action?

You are playing K♥-Q♥ and the flop comes 10♥-4♥-2♠. Your opponent – a conservative player – bets out. You are convinced that if you hit your flush, you will win the hand. What odds do you need to continue? Well, lets keep it very simple: one out of every four cards is a heart. So, theoretically, you have a 25% chance of catching one. As you have two cards to come in all reality you have a 2/1 chance that one will be a heart. If we can keep our pot odds at about 3/1, we are getting a good price to make the call and continue with the hand.

Where people get confused in a hand like this is when their opponent puts out a pot-sized bet on the flop; they are assuming that with two cards to come they will be getting good odds to call at 2/1. This is not the case. If you miss on the turn, your opponent – who is obviously already trying to price you out – will bet again. Now, after having made the call on the flop with 2/1, you will need 4/1 odds to make the call on the turn, which is very doubtful. So, try to keep you odds calculations simple and your decisions even simpler. At 2/1, I would not make the call on the flop.

Even if you are loathe to folding – but end up doing so anyway – forget about rabbit hunting to see if you would have hit. It is of no relevance what cards follow. The only relevance is whether or not you are getting appropriate odds to make the call. The same holds true when you are dictating the action. Let’s look at another example when you want to encourage action: you are playing A♥-J♥ and the flop comes J♣-7♥-2♥. This is an excellent flop for you.

On a good day your opponent would be suited in hearts with the K♥ in hand. You have hit top pair and have the nut-flush draw. You definitely want to bet out here, but you do not want to discourage callers, nor do you want to put out a highly-suspicious bet. I would recommend you bet about half the pot. This gives your opponent 3/1 odds, which are sufficient for him to continue on drawing to a better hand.

KEY POINT 1

If you’re drawing to a flush on the flop, your odds calculation should take into account what you think your opponent will do on later streets

All over you!

Okay, let’s say you have J♣-10♣ and the flop comes J♥-10♦-8♥. You have hit this flop hard with top two pair. But, this is a very dangerous flop for you. There are several other hands that would have called your action pre-flop that may have improved as well, not to mention all of the possible draws that this flop represents. As such, pot odds become your prime consideration.

You want to fire at this pot and discourage callers, especially multiple callers. I would bet at least one and a half times the pot in this scenario. Offering less than 2/1 odds should be enough to discourage calls from players desiring to draw to a better hand. The hand that might call this bet would be someone perhaps playing A-J. With top pair and top kicker, they may want to continue in the hand and this is clearly the call that you want – as you have the hand completely dominated.

KEY POINT 2

Manipulating an opponent’s pot odds is an important skill to have – not only can you protect your hand from being outdrawn, but you can also induce a dominated opponent to call

A nasty habit

Another situation I would like to discuss is multi-player hands. You find yourself pre-flop in late position. Four players limp ahead of you and the blinds don’t look all that interested. You are getting over 5/1 to simply call here and there are very few hands you can have that are worse than 5/1 pre-flop. So you make the call, as does the small blind. The flop comes and you get a small piece of it. There is a bet from the early position player with two callers and once again you are getting ample odds to continue with the hand. So you go ahead and call.

How this hand plays out is not important; what’s important is that you don’t find yourself getting into the routine of calling every hand based on the sheer justification you have the odds to make the call. In the above example, with four limpers and disinterested players on the blinds, I prefer to raise and take the pot down. In the event I get a caller, I will continue my aggression post-flop and see where that takes me. At the very least I will be guilty of playing poker and making a play, rather than becoming a calculating calling station.

Finally, never assume that because you have made a substantial raise at a pot and have clearly priced your opponent out they will simply lay the hand down. You will hear every possible justification for the bad call. ‘I had a feeling’ is my favourite; ‘It’s the best hand I’ve seen in an hour’ is another classic. This is when it’s imperative that your trust in pot odds becomes critically important. Over time the odds always balance out; if you continue with this course of discipline you will find yourself well ahead of the game. Meanwhile, the proverbial calling stations who play their favourite hand regardless of the odds will find themselves driving a cab for a living.

KEY POINT 3

Don’t become a calling station just because the pot odds seem to suggest it’s correct to do so